SWOD48
SPC AC 260850
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0350 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2008
VALID 291200Z - 031200Z
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE INITIALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING A
BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EWD ACROSS SERN CANADA EARLY IN THE DAY 4
TO 8 DAY PERIOD. FROM HERE...THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS DIVERGE
WITH THE GFS MOVING A SUBTLE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN
STATES AND THE ECMWF DEVELOPING A HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH IN THE ROCKIES. THIS INTRODUCES GREAT UNCERTAINTY AND NEITHER
SOLUTION APPEARS TO BE FAVORABLE FOR ANY SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT. THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ACROSS THE CNTRL AND ERN
STATES MOVING AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EWD FROM THE MS VALLEY THIS
WEEKEND INTO THE ERN SEABOARD BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE MAY SUPPRESS THE THREAT FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE EVENT.
..BROYLES.. 08/26/2008
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