MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2160

ACUS11 KWNS 260946
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260945
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-261115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2160
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0445 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN FL...SERN AL INTO WRN GA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 865...

VALID 260945Z - 261115Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 865 CONTINUES.

EARLIER ENHANCEMENT OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION
APPEARED TO BE IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH AN IMPULSE LIFTING THROUGH THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE REMNANTS OF FAY. THIS FORCING IS NOW SHIFTING INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...LEAVING GENERALLY WEAK CONVECTION ALONG A TRAILING
CONFLUENCE BAND NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE ALABAMA/GEORGIA BORDER
THROUGH THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO.

RECENT INTENSIFICATION WITHIN THIS BAND EAST OF VALPARAISO FL INTO
THE DOTHAN GA VICINITY APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT IMPULSE
PIVOTING AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION.
AND...THIS FORCING COULD CONTRIBUTE TO FURTHER ENHANCEMENT OF
STORMS INTO THE PANAMA CITY FL AREA...ALBANY GA...PERHAPS THE
MACON/WARNER ROBINS AREA...BY 12-14Z. SURFACE DEW POINTS ACROSS
THIS REGION REMAIN IN THE MID 70S...WITH RUC GUIDANCE INDICATING
1000-1500 J/KG OF MIXED LAYER CAPE. GIVEN THE CONTINUING PRESENCE
OF MODERATE TO STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...IN PROXIMITY TO A BELT OF
30-40+ KT SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW NOW SLOWLY
SHIFTING ACROSS THE TUSCALOOSA AL VICINITY...THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF
TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT COULD STILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN NEAR/SHORTLY
AFTER DAYBREAK.

..KERR.. 08/26/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...

30498599 31348560 31948540 32598511 32728408 32158370
31108427 30308466 29978538 29928586

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