SWODY1
SPC AC 111550
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1050 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2008
VALID 111630Z - 121200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...ARIZONA...
DEEP LAYER SHEAR HAS WEAKENED ACROSS MUCH OF AZ SINCE WED AS UPPER
LOW/TROUGH SHIFTS SLOWLY EWD FROM SRN CA. HOWEVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO FLOW NWD FROM GULF OF CA INTO SRN AZ. COMBINED WITH
THE PRESENCE OF RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND FULL
HEATING...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN
BY MID AFTERNOON. WITH THE WEAK MID LEVEL SHEAR STORMS WOULD BE
PRIMARILY OF THE PULSE MODE WITH BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.
COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED THUS KEEPING SEVERE PROBABILITIES
RELATIVELY LOW.
...ERN UT/WRN CO...
UPPER LOW NWRN WY/SERN ID BORDER MOVES SLOWLY SWD INTO NWRN UT BY
THIS EVENING. AIR MASS OVER ERN UT/WRN CO IS SOMEWHAT MOIST AND WITH
HEATING BECOMES MARGINALLY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER HIGHER TERRAIN BY MID AFTERNOON
ERN UT/WRN CO AND WITH RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT AHEAD OF UPPER
LOW/TROUGH AND 30KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE HAIL AND BRIEF DAMAGING
DOWNBURST WINDS.
...LA COAST...
SHEAR IS ALREADY INCREASING ALONG CENTRAL GULF COAST IN RESPONSE TO
APPROACH OF HURRICANE IKE. WEAK OUTER RAIN BANDS NOW MOVING ONSHORE
LA. ADDITIONAL RAIN BANDS WILL SPREAD WWD SRN LA INTO SERN TX. THE
THREAT OF TORNADOES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THRU THE FORECAST
PERIOD. ATTM WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW PROBABILITIES AS THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION STILL REMAINS WELL OFFSHORE THROUGH 12Z FRI.
..HALES/CROSBIE.. 09/11/2008
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment