SWODY1
SPC AC 111226
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0726 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2008
VALID 111300Z - 121200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A LARGE BUT RATHER WEAK LARGE SCALE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES...WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE OH VALLEY. AMPLE MOISTURE AND
SEVERAL MINOR IMPULSES ARE FORECAST TO TRAVERSE THIS SW TO NE
ORIENTED FLOW FIELD...PROVIDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM NM/TX INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MOST AREAS
ALONG THIS CORRIDOR WILL SEE CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE DAY...LIMITING INSTABILITY AND OVERALL SEVERE THREAT. A
FEW MORE INTENSE UPDRAFTS COULD DEVELOP OVER THE MIDDLE MS
VALLEY...BUT WEAK LAPSE RATES AND MEAGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST
THREAT OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND DOES NOT WARRANT SEVERE
PROBABILITIES TODAY.
...AZ...
UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CA WILL BEGIN MOVING EASTWARD TODAY
ACROSS PARTS OF UT/NV/AZ. STRONG HEATING IS LIKELY ONCE AGAIN OVER
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF AZ...LEADING TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING STORMS. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW INTENSE STORMS CAPABLE
OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.
...LA...
OUTER BANDS OF HURRICANE IKE WILL AFFECT THE LOUISIANA DELTA REGION
TODAY AND TONIGHT. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SLOWLY INCREASE...POSSIBLY
ENOUGH TO RISK AN ISOLATED TORNADO BEFORE 12/12Z. THEREFORE...HAVE
ADDED A SMALL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS.
..HART/JEWELL.. 09/11/2008
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