SWODY2
SPC AC 101731
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1231 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2008
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
THE POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE NRN
ROCKIES IS FORECAST TO BECOME CUTOFF FROM MAIN BRANCH OF POLAR WLYS
AND DRIFT SSELY THROUGH WY. UPPER VORT MAX OVER CNTRL CA WILL
CONTINUE SLOWLY SWD INTO THE NRN BAJA AREA. MODEST SWLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL PERSIST DOWNSTREAM FROM THE LARGER SCALE UPPER TROUGH WHILE A
SERIES OF EMBEDDED IMPULSES EJECT NEWD THROUGH THE CNTRL STATES.
VORT MAX CURRENTLY OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WILL EJECT ENEWD INTO
THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION WITH ATTENDANT SURFACE
LOW MOVING TO NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR BY THURSDAY EVENING. TRAILING COLD
FRONT WILL EXTEND SWWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY AND
CNTRL PLAINS BY EARLY THURSDAY EVENING.
HURRICANE IKE IS FORECAST BY THE NHC TO MOVE WNWWD THROUGH THE CNTRL
GULF. SEE LATEST NHC DISCUSSIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
...CNTRL GULF COASTAL AREA...
OUTER RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH IKE SHOULD AFFECT THE CNTRL GULF
COASTAL AREA THURSDAY AS THE HURRICANE CONTINUES WNWWD. LOW LEVEL
SHEAR WILL INCREASE DURING THE PERIOD AND MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR
A THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SRN LA AS THE
CENTER PASSES TO WITHIN 200 NM OF THE LA COAST. THIS AREA WILL BE
MONITORED FOR INTRODUCTION OF A SLIGHT RISK IN DAY 1 OUTLOOKS.
...AZ...
RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF CA IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
ACROSS SRN AZ AS UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER CNTRL CA ADVANCES SWD
INTO THE NRN BAJA AREA. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR LOBES OF VORTICITY
TO ROTATE THROUGH THIS FEATURE AND INTO PARTS OF AZ. STORMS WILL
LIKELY INTENSIFY DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER SRN AZ AND THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND SPREAD NEWD. WHERE SUFFICIENT HEATING OCCURS...STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS WILL
SUPPORT A THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HAIL MAY ALSO
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS. THIS AREA MAY NEED TO BE INCLUDED
IN A SLIGHT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS.
...CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH MIDDLE AND UPPER MS VALLEY REGION...
RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NEWD THROUGH PRE-FRONTAL WARM
SECTOR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S LIKELY FROM KS NEWD INTO
THE MID MS VALLEY AND LOW 60S FARTHER NE INTO WI BY LATE AFTERNOON.
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WITHIN NEWD ADVECTING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME
AND ONGOING PRECIPITATION IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT ACCOMPANYING THE
EJECTING IMPULSE WILL LIMIT DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL. LOW LEVEL JET
AND STRONGER BULK SHEAR WILL SHIFT NEWD THROUGH WRN PARTS OF THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY...BUT INSTABILITY IN THIS REGION IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO LIMITED FOR MORE THAN A MARGINAL SEVERE
THREAT. FARTHER SW ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG SEWD
ADVANCING FRONT WHERE INSTABILITY MAY BE SLIGHTLY GREATER...BUT
MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR AND THE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
WILL LIMIT SEVERE THREAT.
..DIAL.. 09/10/2008
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment