SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101757
AZZ000-101930-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2242
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1257 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND NRN AZ
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 101757Z - 101930Z
A SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL AND NRN AZ
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH
THE MORE INTENSE CELLS. A WW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A MOIST AXIS EXTENDING NWD ACROSS WRN AZ
WHERE RUC ANALYSIS SUGGESTS MLCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 1000 TO 2000
J/KG. THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ON THE NRN EDGE OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY DOWNSTREAM FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER NV AND CNTRL
CA. RUC ANALYSIS SUGGESTS A SMALL JET MAX NEAR 40 KT EXISTS OVER
NCNTRL AZ AND THIS IS CREATING ENOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS. AS MOISTURE ADVECTION AND SFC HEATING CONTINUES IN
CNTRL AZ EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE MAKING THE
ENVIRONMENT MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE ALREADY QUITE STEEP ACROSS CNTRL AND NRN AZ AS SUGGESTED
BY THE RUC WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
IN ADDITION...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EVIDENT ON FORECASTS
SOUNDINGS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR HAIL WITH THE MORE INTENSE CELLS.
..BROYLES.. 09/10/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...VEF...
33011242 33031341 33461415 34241403 34961412 35681321
36261189 36291093 36091044 35561010 34831030 33621155
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