SWODY3
SPC AC 080728
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 AM CDT MON SEP 08 2008
VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
AS AN UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EJECTS NEWD/AWAY FROM THE NERN
CONUS...THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURES THIS PERIOD INCLUDE A SECOND
TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS...AND HURRICANE IKE
WHICH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING WNWWD TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO.
WHILE A WEAK/TRAILING COLD FRONT LYING ENE-WSW ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS/SOUTHEAST MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE
PLAINS. HERE...A LEE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHIFTING EWD INTO
THE GREAT PLAINS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH.
...CENTRAL AND NRN PLAINS...
LEE TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS IS EVENTUALLY FORECAST TO SHIFT EWD
AS A WEAK COLD FRONT. AS DAYTIME HEATING SUPPORTS CAPE VALUES INTO
THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE BY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE DEVELOPING WARM
SECTOR OVER THE PLAINS...EXPECT AFTERNOON STORM DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR
-- INITIALLY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS NEAR THE LEE TROUGH.
AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EWD INTO THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...STRONG SLY/SSWLY LOW-LEVEL JET IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP. RESULTING WARM ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW AN
INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY SUPPORT STRONG UPDRAFTS...WITH
CONVECTIVE INTENSITY/ORGANIZATION AIDED BY AMPLE SHEAR /LIKELY IN
THE 30 TO 35 KT RANGE/. THUS...AT LEAST SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL IS
EVIDENT OVER THE PLAINS -- BUT WILL INTRODUCE ONLY A
LARGE/LOW-PROBABILITY AREA ATTM.
...W CENTRAL AND SWRN FL AND THE KEYS...
HURRICANE IKE IS FORECAST TO BE MOVING WNWWD AWAY FROM FL/THE KEYS
THIS PERIOD...PER LATEST NHC FORECASTS. NONETHELESS...ENHANCED
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS W CENTRAL AND SWRN
PARTS OF THE FL PENINSULA AND THE KEYS -- PARTICULARLY DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN LOW SEVERE
PROBABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION...AS ISOLATED TORNADOES APPEAR
POSSIBLE WITH ROTATING CELLS WITHIN OUTER CONVECTIVE BANDS.
..GOSS.. 09/08/2008
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