SWOD48
SPC AC 080829
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0329 AM CDT MON SEP 08 2008
VALID 111200Z - 161200Z
...DISCUSSION...
GFS AND ECMWF MAINTAIN SOME FORECAST SIMILARITY THROUGH DAY 4 /THU
9-11/...WITH DEVIATIONS BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT INCREASING
FROM DAY 5 ONWARD -- INCLUDING THE HANDLING OF HURRICANE IKE.
THUS...WILL NOT ATTEMPT TO SPECIFY ANY AREAS OF SEVERE THREAT BEYOND
DAY 4.
A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT APPEARS POSSIBLE ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT
MAKING SEWD PROGRESS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS/LOWER MO AND MID MS
VALLEYS...BUT THREAT APPEARS ATTM TO BE RELATIVELY LIMITED THUS
PRECLUDING AN OUTLOOK AREA.
THE LATEST NHC FORECAST -- VERY SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT ECMWF AND GFS
RUNS -- DEPICT IKE ROUGHLY 100 NM S OF THE LA COAST. GIVEN SUCH A
POSITION...PORTIONS OF SERN LA WOULD LIKELY BE AFFECTED BY ENHANCED
LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND CONVECTIVE BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM.
AGAIN HOWEVER...WILL NOT ATTEMPT TO INCLUDE ANY THREAT AREAS GIVEN
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS.
..GOSS.. 09/08/2008
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