SWODY3
SPC AC 230726
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0226 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2008
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
MAIN UPPER AIR FEATURE THIS PERIOD WILL EVOLVE FROM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
NOW MOVING SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN PIEDMONT REGION. PRIND
BROAD/CLOSED/CUT-OFF LOW WILL DEVELOP DAY-2...CENTERED EITHER OVER
COASTAL CAROLINAS OR NEARBY ATLANTIC...WITH SOME WWD RETROGRESSION
POSSIBLE JUST BEFORE OR DURING THIS PERIOD. WIDE DAY-2 VARIATION IN
PROGS REGARDING STRENGTH/LOCATION OF THIS FEATURE...AND ESPECIALLY
ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE...ARE FURTHER MAGNIFIED DURING DAY-3. THIS
RESULTS IN TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW MUCH...IF ANY...FAVORABLE
JUXTAPOSITION OF LARGE HODOGRAPHS AND SFC-BASED DESTABILIZATION
COULD SUPPORT SVR THREAT INLAND. SVR POTENTIAL THEREFORE APPEARS
TOO CONDITIONAL TO ASSIGN PROBABILITIES ATTM.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER NERN PACIFIC...INVOF 145W...WILL CROSS
PORTIONS PACIFIC NW EARLY IN PERIOD BEFORE DEAMPLIFYING SOMEWHAT AND
MOVING OVER NRN ROCKIES. ACCOMPANYING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL APPEARS
SLIM AT BEST...BECAUSE OF WEAK INSTABILITY. FARTHER
DOWNSTREAM...CAPPING AT BASE OF ROBUST ELEVATED MIXED LAYER...AND
LACK OF RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...MAY PREVENT SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DIURNALLY OVER NRN PLAINS INVOF DEVELOPING
SFC CYCLONE. NOCTURNAL/ELEVATED WAA REGIME NE OF THAT LOW MAY
SUPPORT LATE-PERIOD/ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER EXTREME NRN MN INTO
PORTIONS NWRN ONT.
..EDWARDS.. 09/23/2008
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