SWOD48
SPC AC 230801
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0301 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2008
VALID 261200Z - 011200Z
...DISCUSSION...
BROAD/CLOSED CYCLONE ALOFT...DISCUSSED IN DAY 2 AND 3 OUTLOOKS...IS
EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE INLAND DAY-4. GREAT INCONSISTENCIES ARE
EVIDENT AMONG SPECTRAL/ECMWF/UK PROGS REGARDING SFC REFLECTION OF
THIS SYSTEM DAYS 4-5 BEFORE IT REJOINS NRN STREAM WLYS AND EJECTS
NEWD...AND MOST MREF MEMBERS KEEP PRIMARY SFC LOW OFFSHORE. BY DAYS
6-8/28TH-1ST...GEN MREF CONSENSUS INDICATES PRONOUNCED ERN
TROUGH/WRN RIDGE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ALOFT...THAT CLIMATOLOGICALLY
WOULD TEND TO SUPPRESS ORGANIZED SVR POTENTIAL OVER MOST OR ALL OF
CONUS. ENOUGH SPREAD EXISTS IN SFC SOLUTIONS WITH THESE ERN
LOWS/TROUGHS THAT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION TO
SUPPORT SVR ALONG E COAST.
..EDWARDS.. 09/23/2008
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