SWOD48
SPC AC 260844
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0344 AM CDT FRI SEP 26 2008
VALID 291200Z - 041200Z
...PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW TO DELINEATE A SVR THREAT AREA...
MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT A STRONG
DIGGING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE AMPLIFICATION OF A
LARGER SCALE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. DURING THE EARLY TO
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. SPREAD EXISTS CONCERNING THE DETAILS OF
THIS EVOLUTION AT THE OUTSET OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT
VARIABILITY GROWS CONSIDERABLY TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE
THE ECMWF AND GFS/MREF ALL SHOW POTENTIAL FOR SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTION
ALONG AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ADVANCING INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS/TENNESSEE VALLEY TUESDAY...THE PATTERN EVOLUTION
LEADING INTO AND THROUGH THIS PERIOD DOES NOT APPEAR TO SUPPORT A
SIGNIFICANT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE OFF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS MAY LIMIT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...WHEN/WHERE A STRENGTHENING
WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW SOUTH OF THE MAIN IMPULSE MAY FINALLY BECOME
SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR. HOWEVER...VEERING
LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS TO A LIGHT WESTERLY COMPONENT IS PROGGED BY
THIS TIME...WHICH MAY LIMIT THE RISK FOR VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT TO SOUTHEAST COASTAL AREAS .
..KERR.. 09/26/2008
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment