SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260939
MNZ000-261115-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2291
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0439 AM CDT FRI SEP 26 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 260939Z - 261115Z
AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP OVER NRN MN EARLY THIS
MORNING. HAIL WOULD LIKELY BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE ACTIVITY. THE
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL AND A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED
ACROSS THE REGION.
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SFC LOW OVER SE SASKATCHEWAN WITH A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS ERN ND. ELEVATED CELLS ARE INITIATING
EAST OF THE BOUNDARY IN NCNTRL MN WHERE SUBSTANTIAL ELEVATED
INSTABILITY EXISTS WITH RUC ANALYZING MUCAPE VALUES IN THE 1500 TO
2500 J/KG RANGE. IN ADDITION...REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS SHOW ABOUT 40
KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGESTING ROTATING STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
STORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE CELLS ARE
LOCATED ON THE ERN EDGE OF A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WITH RELATIVELY COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPS AROUND -14C. THIS SHOULD
SUPPORT A HAIL THREAT AS THE THUNDERSTORMS MATURE EARLY THIS
MORNING.
..BROYLES.. 09/26/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...
46459506 46519562 46799586 47069575 47859493 48279435
48619353 48649246 48499204 48189189 47859202 47499241
47099321 46639429 46489490
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