SWODY1
SPC AC 201559
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1059 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2008
VALID 201630Z - 211200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SRN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL CONTINUE EWD
INTO THE SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD AHEAD OF
STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. SURFACE COLD
FRONT HAS PUSHED SSWWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF ERN NM/WRN TX LATE
THIS MORNING AND IS EXPECTED TO STALL THROUGH TONIGHT ALONG THE FACE
OF THE SRN ROCKIES INTO FAR WRN TX. COMBINATION OF COOLING ALOFT
AND MODEST SURFACE HEATING OVER FAR N-CENTRAL/NERN NM SHOULD ALLOW
MARGINAL SBCAPE TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY DESPITE RELATIVELY DRY LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. DEEP ASCENT AND MID LEVEL MOISTENING SHOULD
THEREFORE ALLOW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM
WITH A FEW STORMS OVER NRN NM POSSIBLY PRODUCING SMALL HAIL...
ALTHOUGH SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TOO LOW TO WARRANT PROBABILITIES.
DEEP MOIST CONVECTION...INCLUDING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...SHOULD
CONTINUE WELL AFTER DARK AND GRADUALLY SPREAD EWD INTO THE
SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ALONG NOSE OF MODERATE SLY LLJ.
...NRN ROCKIES...
SEASONABLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL COLD
POCKET CONTINUES TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE PAC NW THIS MORNING.
ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BECOME BETTER DEFINED
OVER THE NRN ROCKIES DURING THE DAY AND MOVE QUICKLY EWD ACROSS MUCH
OF MT/ID/NWRN WY THROUGH TONIGHT. DEEP ASCENT AND MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST A FEW THUNDERSTORMS BOTH AHEAD
OF THE FRONT FROM THE NRN ROCKIES EWD ACROSS WRN/NRN MT...AND WITHIN
POST FRONTAL REGIME OVER WRN WA/NWRN ORE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
..EVANS.. 10/20/2008
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