SWODY1
SPC AC 201249
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0749 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2008
VALID 201300Z - 211200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE POLAR WLYS WILL AMPLIFY TODAY WITH DEEPENING TROUGHS
ACROSS THE GRTLKS REGION AND THE NWRN TIER OF THE COUNTRY. TO THE
S...A LOW-AMPLITUDE IMPULSE CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLNS TONIGHT.
...SRN ROCKIES INTO SRN HIGH PLNS...
WK CDFNT ANALYZED ERN KS...NW OK...NRN TX PNHDL AND SE CO AT 12Z
WILL STALL LATER THIS MORNING AS PRESSURES BEGIN TO FALL UPSTREAM IN
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. ESE UPSLOPE LOW-LVL FLOW ALONG/S OF THE
FRONT WILL MAINTAIN/ADVECT MID 30S TO MID 40S F SFC DEW POINTS TO
THE HIGHER SCNTRL CO/CNTRL NM TERRAIN THIS AFTN. STRONG INSOLATION
AND COOLING ALOFT ASSOCD WITH THE APCHG IMPULSE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
WEAK DESTABILIZATION ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS/ADJACENT
PLNS. AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADS EWD...DIURNALLY-BASED
CONVECTION WILL DEEPEN/STRENGTHEN INTO TSTMS AND MOVE ENE ONTO THE
HIGH PLNS OF SERN CO/ERN NM LATE AFTN/EVE. COMBINATION OF 40-45 KTS
OF VERTICAL SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATE/COOL ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY
FOSTER ONE OR TWO ORGANIZED STORMS/PSBL BRIEF SUPERCELL WITH LARGE
HAIL THE PRIMARY SVR THREAT. TSTMS SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AFTER
SUNSET AS THEY APCH THE OK/TX PNHDLS.
..RACY/HURLBUT.. 10/20/2008
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