SWODY1
SPC AC 271226
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0726 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2008
VALID 271300Z - 281200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
THE LARGE SCALE REGIME OF A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OH
VALLEY /EVOLVING INTO A CLOSED LOW NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC/...AND A
RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES/GREAT BASIN...IS NOT SUPPORTIVE OF ANY
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM THREAT AREAS ACROSS THE CONUS OWING TO
RELATIVELY COOL/DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS AND MINIMAL INSTABILITY.
THE RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS OF 68-72 F/
IS CONFINED TO DEEP S TX AND THE FL STRAITS IN ADVANCE OF TWO
SEPARATE FRONTAL SEGMENTS. SOME SLIGHTLY ELEVATED CONVECTION...AND
PERHAPS ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES...MAY OCCUR BEFORE ABOUT 15Z
INVOF THE LOWER RIO GRANDE ALONG THE SURGING COLD FRONT...BUT THIS
THREAT WILL BE TOO MARGINAL IN MAGNITUDE/TIME/SPACE TO WARRANT AN
OUTLOOK AREA.
MEANWHILE...COLD AIR IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE GREAT LAKES TODAY. BOUNDARY LAYER
MODIFICATION SHOULD RESULT IN SBCAPE OF 100-200 J/KG AND
SUFFICIENTLY DEEP/COLD BUOYANT LAYERS TO SUPPORT ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LEE OF LAKES MI/ERIE AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
MORE NWLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
..THOMPSON.. 10/27/2008
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