SWOD48
SPC AC 270752
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0252 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2008
VALID 301200Z - 041200Z
...DISCUSSION...
LATEST MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS REMARKABLY CONSISTENT IN THE
EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS ON D4 /THU OCT
30TH/ IS FORECAST TO PHASE WITH A STRONGER...POLAR BRANCH SHORT WAVE
TROUGH...EFFECTIVELY FORMING A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH OVER ERN NORTH
AMERICA BY D6 /SAT NOV 1ST/. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH...A
REINFORCING CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS WILL PUSH SEWD THROUGH THE
N-CNTRL STATES...GREAT LAKES AND EVENTUALLY TO THE ATLANTIC COAST
AND GULF OF MEXICO. THE NET RESULT WILL BE THE MAINTENANCE OF A
DRY...STABLE AIR MASS OVER MOST OF THE CONUS E OF THE ROCKIES.
THEREAFTER...DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE DATA SETS BEGIN TO DIFFER ON
THE EWD PROGRESSION OF THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE WRN STATES.
THE ECMWF IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE MODEL IN MOVING THIS TROUGH EWD
WITH THIS SCENARIO SUPPORTED BY A NUMBER OF MEDIUM-RANGE ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS. REGARDLESS...THE PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE ERN
STATES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT ANY SUBSTANTIAL
MOISTURE RETURN IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH.
THEREFORE...NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS FORECAST.
..MEAD.. 10/27/2008
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