DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 120058
SWODY1
SPC AC 120055

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0755 PM CDT SAT OCT 11 2008

VALID 120100Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER CNTRL/ERN NM AND WRN TX
NWD INTO SERN CO AND SWRN KS...

...CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...

INTENSE MID AND UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL
SLOWLY DEVELOP EWD TONIGHT AS 130+ KT HIGH-LEVEL JET STREAK
PROPAGATES NEWD FROM THE FOUR CORNER REGION INTO THE NRN/CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS. EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A SMALLER-SCALE SHORT
WAVE OVER CO WHICH WILL CONTINUE NEWD INTO THE DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT.
IN THE LOW-LEVELS...PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP EWD ACROSS
CO WITH TRAILING PACIFIC FRONT PUSHING EWD THROUGH THE CNTRL/SRN
ROCKIES.

A COUPLE OF LOOSELY ORGANIZED BANDS OF TSTMS /INCLUDING SUPERCELLS/
ARE IN PROGRESS AS OF 01Z...ONE FROM SERN CO TO JUST E OF ABQ...AND
THE OTHER FROM NEAR DHT TO JUST E OF ELP. PLAN VIEW VWP DATA AND
SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING
WITHIN A BROADLY CONFLUENT LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME WHERE LOW-LEVEL
MASS CONVERGENCE IS BEING ENHANCED. DESPITE A WARMER AND MORE MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS PRESENT OVER WRN TX/ERN NM...00Z REGIONAL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY EXISTS OVER CNTRL
NM /I.E. SBCAPE AROUND 1000 J PER KG/ OWING LARGELY TO COMPARATIVELY
COOLER MIDLEVEL THERMAL PROFILES AND RESULTANT STEEPER LAPSE RATES.

INCREASED MOISTURE FLUX AND LOW-LEVEL ASCENT ALONG 40-50 KT
NOCTURNAL LLJ...COMBINED WITH STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM
THE W WILL LIKELY FOCUS A N-S CORRIDOR OF STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS
OVERNIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF ERN NM/WRN TX NWD INTO ERN CO/WRN KS.
THE PRESENCE OF STRONG LOW AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IN ADDITION TO A
WEAK LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS E-CNTRL NM INTO THE SRN TX
PNHDL /REF MCD 2329/ SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO OR TWO WITH
ANY MORE INTENSE SUPERCELLS THAT MAY DEVELOP. OTHERWISE...HAIL AND
LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS.

..MEAD.. 10/12/2008

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