MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2330

ACUS11 KWNS 120046
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120046
OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-120215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2330
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0746 PM CDT SAT OCT 11 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN NM...EXTREME SCNTRL CO AND FAR W TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 916...917...

VALID 120046Z - 120215Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
916...917...CONTINUES.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 916 COVERING CNTRL/NRN NM AND EXTREME
SCNTRL CO IS SET TO EXPIRE AT 02Z...BUT MAY NEED TO BE EITHER
REPLACED OR EXTENDED BY LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST OFFICES PENDING
CURRENT STORM EVOLUTIONS.

WEAK RIDGING/SUBSIDENCE WAS SPREADING NEWD IN WAKE OF A SHORTWAVE
IMPULSE ROTATING NWD OUT OF CNTRL NM AND WAS LIKELY RESPONSIBLE FOR
DECREASING TSTMS UPSTREAM ACROSS SE AZ/NRN MEXICO. BAND OF
MORE-OR-LESS DISCRETE STORMS CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE WAVE FROM SERN
CO INTO THE KLVS AREA. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE NEWD INTO THE
NERN NM PLAINS AND EXTREME SERN CO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING. NOCTURNAL COOLING AND INFLOW FROM THE BAND OF STORMS ALONG
THE TX/NM BORDER WILL LIKELY DECREASE THE SVR THREATS...ESPECIALLY
TORNADO RISKS AS EFFECTIVE PARCELS BECOME ROOTED ABOVE THE SFC.

MEANWHILE...HIGHER SVR POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN FROM FAR W TX NEWD INTO
SERN/ECNTRL NM AND INTO THE FAR WRN TX PNHDL. HERE...MIXED STORM
MODES CONSISTING OF BOWS AND DISCRETE CELLS CONTINUE TO
THRIVE...FEEDING ON STRONGER INSTABILITY. H85-H7 SLY JET IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH 06Z COINCIDENT WITH THE EWD EDGING OF
STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THREATS FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ALONG THE TX/NM BORDER
FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS THIS EVENING. MOREOVER...STRONG LOW-LEVEL
TURNING AND MAINTENANCE OF SFC-BASED EFFECTIVE PARCELS WILL CONTINUE
THE RISK FOR A TORNADO OR TWO WITH DISCRETE CELLS. PARTS OF THE
REGION WILL LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO A TORNADO WATCH SHORTLY.

..RACY.. 10/12/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...ABQ...EPZ...GJT...

34020786 36860717 37910512 37660322 35420249 33840269
31670436 31280578 31990714

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.