DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 030558
SWODY2
SPC AC 030556

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 AM CDT FRI OCT 03 2008

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE WRN U.S. WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGE
SHIFTING INTO THE MS VALLEY REGION. A LEAD IMPULSE WILL EJECT NE
THROUGH THE CNTRL ROCKIES WHILE STRONGER UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN. COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE NRN
ROCKIES AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN...WHILE A LEE TROUGH PERSISTS OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS. WARM FRONT INITIALLY OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER
MS VALLEY WILL LIFT NWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY.

...UPPER MS VALLEY REGION...

ELY TRAJECTORIES ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF ERN U.S. UPPER RIDGE WILL
LIMIT BOUNDARY LAYER MODIFICATION OVER THE GULF. HOWEVER...STRONG
SLY GRADIENT FLOW EAST OF LEE TROUGH WILL ADVECT AXIS OF MODIFIED CP
AIR WITH 50S DEWPOINTS NWD THROUGH PARTS OF THE PLAINS AND MS VALLEY
BENEATH EML PLUME. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SOME DESTABILIZATION.
HOWEVER...INSUFFICIENT MOISTURE RETURN AND UPPER RIDGING WILL LIMIT
POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE BASED DEVELOPMENT. STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING
FROM PARTS OF ERN OK INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY WITHIN ZONE OF WARM
ADVECTION AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH SWLY LOW LEVEL JET. STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST MUCAPE WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE DAY AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS. OTHER ELEVATED STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS AND ENHANCES LIFT IN VICINITY OF RETREATING WARM FRONT.
LAPSE RATES MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A THREAT OF MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL...BUT MODEST INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL LIMIT OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT.

...GREAT BASIN AREA...

COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT ON CYCLONIC SIDE OF SEWD DEVELOPING UPPER
JET WILL RESULT IN STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED BY POTENTIAL FOR
AREAS OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WHERE
HEATING DOES OCCUR A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

..DIAL.. 10/03/2008

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.