DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 030733
SWODY3
SPC AC 030730

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT FRI OCT 03 2008

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE SRN
PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...

BROAD HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE ROCKIES
AND INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY. A STRONG UPPER JET AND ATTENDANT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH BASE OF UPPER TROUGH AND INTO NM
AND WRN TX DURING THE DAY. LEE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER
ERN CO OR WRN KS WITHIN CYCLONIC UPPER JET EXIT REGION. A LEE TROUGH
WILL EXTEND SWD FROM THIS LOW THROUGH THE SRN HIGH PLAINS OF WRN
TX...BUT WILL LIKELY BE OVERTAKEN BY A COLD FRONT SUNDAY EVENING.

...CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS...

AXIS OF MODIFIED CP AIR WILL ADVECT NWD THROUGH THE SRN AND CNTRL
HIGH PLAINS ALONG A STRONG SLY LOW LEVEL JET. MEANWHILE...STEEPER
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY SPREAD EWD OVER THE MOIST AXIS AND
CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION DURING THE DAY. MODELS
SUGGEST CLOUDS AND ELEVATED CONVECTION COULD BEGIN FAIRLY EARLY OVER
WRN TX AS LIFT WITHIN UPPER JET EXIT REGION OVERSPREADS THE WARM
SECTOR. THE EXTENT AND EVOLUTION OF CLOUD COVER REMAINS THE PRIMARY
UNCERTAINTY AND COULD LIMIT DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AS WELL AS OVERALL
THREAT. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTENING AS WELL AS HEIGHT FALLS
ATTENDING UPPER TROUGH WILL RESULT IN POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST MODEST
DESTABILIZATION. STORMS MAY BECOME SURFACE BASED AND INTENSIFY ALONG
AND JUST EAST OF LEE TROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON. INCREASING BULK
SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING UPPER JET WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED
STORM STRUCTURES INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOWING LINE SEGMENTS.
OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP AS THE COLD FRONT OVERTAKES THE MOIST AXIS
OVERNIGHT WITH STORMS EVENTUALLY EVOLVING INTO AN MCS BEFORE
WEAKENING AS THEY ADVANCE EWD THROUGH PARTS OF OK OVERNIGHT.

..DIAL.. 10/03/2008

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