SWOD48
SPC AC 030844
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0344 AM CDT FRI OCT 03 2008
VALID 061200Z - 111200Z
...DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE INTO THE CNTRL
AND SRN PLAINS MONDAY. INDICATIONS ARE THAT LEAD IMPULSE WILL LIFT
NEWD THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY WHILE A SECONDARY
IMPULSE DROPS SEWD INTO BASE OF UPPER TROUGH THROUGH WRN AND CNTRL
TX. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED
STORMS ALONG SRN AND ERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER TROUGH. DEWPOINTS IN THE
60S WILL LIKELY ADVECT THROUGH WARM SECTOR. SOME THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS WILL EXIST FROM PARTS OF N CNTRL TX THROUGH CNTRL AND ERN OK
INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS REGARDING WHERE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL DESTABILIZE SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...A RISK AREA MAY NEED TO BE
ADDED IN LATER OUTLOOKS.
BEYOND DAY 4...MODELS SUGGEST UPPER TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
OVER TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY BEFORE BECOMING CUTOFF FROM THE NRN
STREAM. WHILE A THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS MAY PERSIST THROUGH DAY 6
FROM PARTS OF ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO INTRODUCE A HIGHER END OUTLOOK AREA.
..DIAL.. 10/03/2008
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