SWODY3
SPC AC 100731
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0231 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2008
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...
...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH -- AND EMBEDDED LOW -- OVER THE
ROCKIES/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST IS FORECAST TO MAKE ONLY VERY LIMITED EWD
PROGRESS OVERALL...THOUGH THE EMBEDDED LOW SHOULD SHIFT NNEWD INTO
THE NRN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...A LARGE RIDGE
WILL PREVAIL OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS...WITH A SECOND RIDGE
MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE W COAST BEHIND THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH.
AT THE SURFACE...AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INVOF THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS SHOULD SHIFT GRADUALLY NWD ACROSS THE N CENTRAL
CONUS...WHILE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THE WAKE
OF THE LOW. ELSEWHERE...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...AND A SECOND WILL SHIFT INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT.
...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY IS FORECAST ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS -- WHERE
THE MOST FORCEFUL ADVANCE OF THE UPPER SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED...AND
THUS EXPECT LITTLE SEVERE THREAT DESPITE THE FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE
CONDITIONS.
FARTHER S...THE COLD FRONT ADVANCING SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH
THE PERIOD AHEAD OF THE MORE SLOWLY-MOVING UPPER SYSTEM SHOULD
RESULT IN THE STRONGEST FLOW ALOFT -- AND THE STRONGEST LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT -- REMAINING TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT.
THEREFORE...IT APPEARS ATTM THAT THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT THIS PERIOD
SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. ACROSS THIS
REGION...LOW-LEVEL UVV ASSOCIATED WITH PERSISTENT SELY LOW-LEVEL
UPSLOPE FLOW AND THE SEWD ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT...COMBINED WITH MARGINAL AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION...SHOULD
RESULT IN SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT. AMPLE SHEAR TO SUPPORT
ORGANIZED SUPERCELL STORMS EXPECTED ATOP THE WARM SECTOR SUGGESTS
THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS...WITH THE
THREAT CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
..GOSS.. 10/10/2008
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