SWOD48
SPC AC 100844
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0344 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2008
VALID 131200Z - 181200Z
...DISCUSSION...
LARGE TROUGH EXTENDING INITIALLY FROM THE NRN PLAINS SWWD INTO THE
SWRN CONUS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD IS FORECAST TO SEPARATE INTO
TWO FEATURES. THE FIRST -- A RAPIDLY MOVING NRN STREAM SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH -- IS PROGGED TO MOVE QUICKLY EWD/ENEWD INTO ERN CANADA DAYS
4-5 /OCT. 13 AND 14/.
MEANWHILE...THE SRN SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE MORE
SLOWLY EWD OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO/ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. --
THOUGH THE DETAILS AND TIMING THIS EVOLUTION ARE HANDLED QUITE
DIFFERENTLY BY THE GFS AND ECMWF.
IN ANY CASE...AS THE NRN STREAM TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY EWD...THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SWEEP EWD ACROSS THE
NERN QUARTER OF THE COUNTRY...WHILE LAGGING SWWD OVER THE S CENTRAL
CONUS. AGAIN -- THE FORECAST EVOLUTION OF THIS TRAILING PORTION OF
THE FRONT DIFFERS BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS.
OVERALL HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN
LIMITED AT BEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME LINGERING SEVERE POTENTIAL
MAY EXIST OVER THE TX HIGH PLAINS DAY 4 /MON. OCT. 13/...BUT BEYOND
DAY 4 LITTLE SEVERE POTENTIAL IS APPARENT ATTM THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD.
..GOSS.. 10/10/2008
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