SWOD48
SPC AC 120735
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0235 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2008
VALID 151200Z - 201200Z
...DISCUSSION...
ECMWF AND GFS IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH AT LEAST DAY
6...AFTER WHICH DIVERGENCE IN SOLUTIONS BEGINS TO INCREASE.
THROUGH DAY 5...LITTLE OR NO SEVERE THREAT IS APPARENT...WITH A
LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST OVER THE CENTRAL AND
ERN CONUS.
MODELS HINT THAT THE CONVECTIVE -- AND POSSIBLY THE SEVERE --
POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE DAY 6 /FRI. OCT. 17/ OVER THE SOUTHEAST...AS
AN EXPANDING MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. DRIVES CYCLOGENESIS
ALONG THE OLD BAROCLINIC ZONE LINGERING ACROSS THIS REGION. IF
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR ONSHORE -- AS OPPOSED TO OVER
THE GULF STREAM...SOME SEVERE THREAT COULD BECOME POSSIBLE. ATTM
HOWEVER...THREAT DOES NOT WARRANT THE INCLUSION OF A RISK AREA.
BEYOND DAY 6...AFOREMENTIONED MODEL DIFFERENCES PRECLUDE ANY ATTEMPT
AT ASCERTAINING THE POTENTIAL FOR DEEP CONVECTION.
..GOSS.. 10/12/2008
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