SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120805
OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-120930-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2336
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0305 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN CO/SWRN KS.
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 919...
VALID 120805Z - 120930Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 919
CONTINUES.
KS AND PORTIONS EXTREME E-CENTRAL CO ALREADY HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM
WW LOCALLY...AND SVR POTENTIAL SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS
REGION. REMAINDER WW MAY BE CANCELED BEFORE SCHEDULED 11Z
EXPIRATION.
ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER NERN NM AND MOVING INTO SERN CO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...WITH CONTINUED UPSLOPE ADVECTION OF FAVORABLY
MOIST AIR MASS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST SBCINH INCREASES DRAMATICALLY WITH NWD EXTENT AWAY FROM
HIGHER TERRAIN OF RTN MESA...EXCEEDING 100 J/KG ACROSS MOST OF
E-CENTRAL/SERN CO AND SWRN KS DURING NEXT 2-3 HOURS. THIS WILL
GREATLY MITIGATE CONVECTIVE WIND THREAT. ELEVATED LOW LEVEL WAA MAY
SUPPORT SOME POTENTIAL FOR HAIL WITH ANY SUSTAINED TSTMS THAT CAN
MOVE OVER THIS REGION...GIVEN LIKELIHOOD OF CONTINUED 45-55 KT
EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES. HOWEVER...ALREADY MRGL BUOYANCY -- E.G.
MUCAPES GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TO AOB 500 J/KG MOST AREAS WITH WEAK
CAPE DENSITY -- MAY LIMIT POTENTIAL UPDRAFT MAINTENANCE AND
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IN FACE OF STG SHEARING EFFECTS.
..EDWARDS.. 10/12/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...ABQ...
36970194 37000366 38660309 38470180 37990178
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