SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112351
TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-120115-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2329
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0651 PM CDT SAT OCT 11 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...ECNTRL/NERN NM AND WRN TX PNHDL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 112351Z - 120115Z
SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OF 10-20 KTS VEERING TO SWLY AOA 50 KTS AT 2-3KM
VIA PER THE FDX VAD WIND IS RESULTING IN ABOUT 400 M2/S2 0-1KM SRH
AND OVER 65 KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR. DISCRETE TSTM CELLS SEEM TO BE
MATURING AS SUPERCELLS IN A ZONE FROM JUST E OF KABQ TO KTCC WITHIN
A NW-SE ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE. A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS HAVE
EXHIBITED LOW-LVL ROTATION AND GIVEN HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE...A COUPLE OF TORNADOES MAY OCCUR YET THIS EVENING.
STRONGER TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE NEWD THROUGH NERN NM AND
INTO THE FAR WRN TX PNHDL THROUGH MID-EVENING AS A WEAK IMPULSE
RIDES NEWD FROM CNTRL NM INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. STORM MODE MAY BE
SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC IN SUSTAINING DISCRETE STORMS AS CELLS
MERGE/EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE. BUT...SMALL SCALE BOWS THAT FORM
DURING THE TRANSITION FROM SUPERCELLS INTO MERGING CLUSTERS MAY GIVE
DMGG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR HIGH-RESOLUTION RADAR IMAGES AND IF STORMS
CAN MAINTAIN SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...A SHORT TERM TORNADO WATCH MAY
BE NECESSARY FOR PARTS OF THE REGION.
..RACY.. 10/11/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ...
34900622 36500307 36360204 35610201 34860250 34280362
34120457 34650602
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