SWODY3
SPC AC 020759
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0159 AM CST SUN NOV 02 2008
VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS INDICATE THAT A STRONG POLAR JET CORE WILL FINALLY DIG INLAND
ACROSS THE PACIFIC COAST DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD... CONTRIBUTING
TO A DEEPENING MID/UPPER TROUGH FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE
PLAINS...AND SUPPORTING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS TO THE LEE OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. AS THIS OCCURS...THE DOWNSTREAM SOUTHERN BRANCH
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY BEGIN SHIFTING EAST OF THE SOUTH
ATLANTIC COAST. AND... SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN.
HOWEVER...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT BOUNDARY LAYER
MODIFICATION OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
A SIGNIFICANT/DEEP LAYER INLAND RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE UNTIL AT
LEAST VERY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...MORE LIKELY WEDNESDAY. COUPLED WITH
CONSIDERABLE LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC INHIBITION ACROSS THE
PLAINS...ASSOCIATED WITH ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR EMANATING FROM THE
PLATEAU REGION... CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THROUGH MUCH OF
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT APPEARS LIMITED.
...PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY/NORTHERN PLAINS...
DESPITE THE LACK OF A RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...MODELS
ARE SUGGESTIVE THAT LINGERING MOISTURE NOW PRESENT FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU /CHARACTERIZED BY 55-60F SURFACE DEW
POINTS/ WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS BY LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT. THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR COINCIDENT WITH THE CONSOLIDATION
OF A SUB 1000 MB SURFACE LOW IN THE VICINITY OF CENTRAL/EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA...DOWNSTREAM OF THE DIFLUENT UPPER TROUGH...WHERE
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION MAY BECOME STRONG
ENOUGH TO OVERCOME INHIBITION. IF LEVELS OF FREE CONVECTION FOR
LIFTED PARCELS ARE REACHED...SHEAR BENEATH SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB
FLOW...PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS...WILL PROBABLY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH AT LEAST THE RISK FOR LARGE HAIL.
..KERR.. 11/02/2008
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