SWOD48
SPC AC 020939
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0339 AM CST SUN NOV 02 2008
VALID 051200Z - 101200Z
...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE
MID AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS COMING WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...
THE SPREAD AMONG MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS AND MREF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS IS NOW REASONABLY LOW THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTIONS
OF THE COMING WORK WEEK. STRONG SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS PROGGED TO
ACCOMPANY AN AMPLIFIED POLAR TROUGH EAST OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. WHILE IT APPEARS MOST
PROBABLE THAT THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW WILL TAKE A NORTHERN TRACK
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTIVE THAT A COLD FRONT/DRY LINE INTERSECTION ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR INTENSE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT AS THE POLAR JET CORE BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD IT WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. AND...A SUBSTANTIVE RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO
APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR A FEW
SUPERCELLS IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG SHEAR...BEFORE LARGE-SCALE
FORCING SUPPORTS POSSIBLE UPSCALE GROWTH INTO AN EXTENSIVE SQUALL
LINE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE WARM SECTOR MAY NOT BECOME
PARTICULARLY BROAD...A STRONG/SEVERE SQUALL LINE MAY ADVANCE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE MID AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...BEFORE ACTIVITY DIMINISHES AS THE CYCLONE OCCLUDES
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
..KERR.. 11/02/2008
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