SWODY3
SPC AC 240808
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0208 AM CST MON NOV 24 2008
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
BUILDING RIDGE IN NRN ATLANTIC WILL BLOCK EWD MOVEMENT OF CLOSED LOW
THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...RESULTING IN AN
UPPER TROUGH IN CA TO SLOWLY BROADEN AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS IT
PROGRESS SLOWLY EWD. THIS PATTEN SHOULD CONTINUE STABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE COUNTRY...WITH THE EXCEPTION IN
THE SWRN STATES.
...SWRN STATES...
AS THE CA UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION...24 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS
NEAR 60M AND 500 MB TEMPERATURES COOLING INTO THE -16C TO -20C RANGE
WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE FAVORABLE VERTICAL
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FOR THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY WITH DIURNAL
HEATING. STORM ORGANIZATION IS POSSIBLE AS 50-60 KT MID LEVEL WINDS
SPREAD INTO THE REGION AND YIELD DEEP LAYER SHEAR AT 40-50 KT. THIS
AMOUNT OF SHEAR COMBINED WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT MIGHT SUPPORT HAIL. HOWEVER...MARGINAL
INSTABILITY...MUCAPES LESS THAN 500 J/KG...SUGGESTS THE THREAT FOR
LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE LOW.
..IMY.. 11/24/2008
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