SWOD48
SPC AC 240910
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0310 AM CST MON NOV 24 2008
VALID 271200Z - 021200Z
...DISCUSSION...
THANKSGIVING DAY...AS SWRN U.S. TROUGH SHIFTS EWD WITHIN SPLIT FLOW
ALOFT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG SEWD INTO THE NRN
PLAINS AND INCREASE THE CONFLUENCE ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS.
THIS WILL RESULT IN THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WRN U.S. TROUGH TO
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EWD INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. ALSO THE UPPER
TROUGH SHOULD BECOME MORE POSITIVELY TILTED AND WEAKEN MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...WITH INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND
STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER SHEAR...THE UPPER TROUGH MAY STILL SUPPORT
A FEW STRONG STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
DAYS 5/FRI THROUGH 8/MON...UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD NWD
ACROSS THE FAR ERN PACIFIC AND INTO WRN CANADA...WHICH WILL AMPLIFY
A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTH AMERICA...ALONG AND EAST OF THE
ROCKIES. AS THIS AMPLIFICATION OCCURS...THE REMNANTS OF THE SWRN
U.S. TROUGH WILL BE EJECTED NEWD FROM THE MID MS VALLEY NEWD INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON FRI. THOUGH THIS MAY AID IN A SURFACE
WAVE TO DEEPEN ALONG AN EWD MOVING COLD FRONT...NO APPRECIABLE
INSTABILITY FOR STRONG CONVECTION IS FORESEEN. THEREAFTER...THE
LARGE COLD TROUGH ALOFT INDICATES DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL...WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
..IMY.. 11/24/2008
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