SWODY1
SPC AC 011615
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1015 AM CST SUN FEB 01 2009
VALID 011630Z - 021200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...ARKLATEX...
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
PLAINS STATES...WHILE A SERIES OF SOUTHERN STREAM FEATURES TRAVERSE
NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS ARE SLOWLY TRANSPORTING GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE LOWER
MS VALLEY...BUT RECENT COLD INTRUSIONS HAVE LEFT THAT PART OF THE
GULF RATHER COOL/STABLE. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL PRIMARILY REMAIN OFFSHORE THIS FORECAST
PERIOD...AND THAT SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE RESTRICTED TO
THE IMMEDIATE TX/LA GULF COAST AND OFFSHORE. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIR AGREEMENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
DARK OVER EAST TX ALONG APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ELEVATED CAPE AND
RATHER STEEP LAPSE RATES SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR HAIL IN STRONGER
CORES...BUT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LOW. ALSO
OVERNIGHT...CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY APPROACH THE LA COAST FROM
THE SOUTHWEST WHERE NEAR SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY COULD POSE A
THREAT OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.
..HART.. 02/01/2009
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