SWODY2
SPC AC 011727
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 AM CST SUN FEB 01 2009
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT SHOWING A SRN STREAM IMPULSE EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING DAY 1 PERIOD FROM NRN MEXICO
WILL TRANSLATE ENEWD ACROSS NRN FL ON MONDAY...AND REACH THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST BY 12Z TUESDAY. THIS WILL OCCUR AS NRN STREAM FLOW
REGIME UNDERGOES FURTHER AMPLIFICATION WITH A FULL LATITUDE LONG
WAVE TROUGH EVOLVING OVER THE ERN U.S. DOWNSTREAM OF A STRENGTHENING
RIDGE ACROSS WRN NORTH AMERICA.
PRIMARY SURFACE BOUNDARY OF FOCUS FOR THIS OUTLOOK SHOULD EXTEND
FROM THE SRN TIP OF FL WWD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF AT 12Z MONDAY...
WITH THIS BOUNDARY THEN MOVING NWD THROUGH S FL. A SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK EWD FROM THE CENTRAL GULF...ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...
REACHING SWRN FL /VICINITY OF FMY/ BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. IT
WILL THEN TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS SRN FL MONDAY EVENING...DRAGGING A
TRAILING FRONT SWD. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE FRONT ATTENDANT TO ERN
U.S. LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL EXTEND SWWD ALONG THE APPALACHIANS INTO
THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND WRN GULF AT 12Z MONDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
PROGRESS EWD ON DAY 2...MOVING OFF THE ERN SEABOARD BY END OF PERIOD
AND EXTEND SWWD THROUGH CENTRAL FL.
...SOUTH FL...
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THIS REGION WILL STRENGTHEN ON DAY 2...
ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT...AS THE HEIGHT GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITHIN
BASE OF DEEPENING ERN U.S. TROUGH. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STRUGGLE TO RETURN AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW
APPROACHING FMY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE
LOWER 60S. GIVEN MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...INSTABILITY WILL
LIKELY BE RATHER MEAGER...A FEW HUNDRED J/KG MUCAPE. HOWEVER...
SHEAR PROFILES WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY TO BE SUPPORTIVE FOR DEEP
STORM ROTATION. IT APPEARS GUSTY WINDS REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT
WITH ANY LONGER LIVED THUNDERSTORM UPDRAFTS THAT CAN BE SUSTAINED
WITHIN THE STRONGLY SHEARED AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE
PRESENCE OF A VEERED WSWLY 45 KT WSWLY LLJ SHOULD ENHANCE THIS WIND
THREAT. DESPITE THE FAVORABLE KINEMATICS...THE FORECAST MOISTURE
REMAINS JUST TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT A SLIGHT RISK AT THIS TIME...
BUT LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED NWD SOME TO ACCOUNT
FOR A SLIGHTLY LARGER WARM SECTOR OVER LAND.
..PETERS.. 02/01/2009
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