SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302213
OKZ000-KSZ000-302345-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0647
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0513 PM CDT THU APR 30 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 302213Z - 302345Z
A SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP THIS EVENING IF THUNDERSTORMS CAN
INITIATE IN NRN AND CNTRL OK. THE STORMS SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO/WIND DAMAGE THREAT. THE
AREA WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF STORM INITIATION WITH WW
ISSUANCE POSSIBLE.
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
WOODWARD EXTENDING ESEWD TO NEAR GUTHRIE AND MUSKOGEE. NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...THE AIRMASS IS STRONGLY CAPPED AND THE RUC SUGGESTS
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS INCREASING ALONG THE BOUNDARY ITSELF. IN
SPITE OF WEAK LARGE-SCALE FORCING...STORM INITIATION REMAINS
POSSIBLE SOMETIME FROM EARLY TO MID EVENING ESPECIALLY IF LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE CAN CONTINUE TO INCREASE. IF STORMS CAN
INITIATE...REGIONAL PROFILERS ACROSS THE MCD AREA SUGGEST ABOUT 40
KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR EXISTS. IN ADDITION...RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE
TO STRONG INSTABILITY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD EASILY SUPPORT A THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH A
TORNADO...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE.
..BROYLES.. 04/30/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...DDC...
LAT...LON 34789629 35459797 35919944 36449977 36789963 36979931
37019882 36739768 36159640 35889595 35519563 34789629
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