MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0648

ACUS11 KWNS 302226
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302226
OKZ000-TXZ000-302330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0648
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0526 PM CDT THU APR 30 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TX...SWRN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 302226Z - 302330Z

ISOLD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER NWRN TX OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. SHOULD INITIATION OCCUR...STORMS WILL LIKELY QUICKLY
BECOME SEVERE. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LINE OF CU DEVELOPING ALONG THE
DRYLINE IN NWRN TX. ALTHOUGH VISUAL APPEARANCE OF THE CU AND CURRENT
MESOANALYSIS INDICATE WEAK CINH REMAINS...STRONG SURFACE HEATING
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS MAY ACT TO SUFFICIENTLY WEAKEN THE
CAP...ALLOWING STORMS TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP. UNCERTAINTY LIES IN THE
RELATIVELY WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE...AND GENERAL RIDGING
ALOFT. SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP...THEY WILL LIKELY QUICKLY BECOME
ROOTED AT THE SURFACE AND BECOME SEVERE IN A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
GIVEN VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND 40 KTS OF 0 TO 6 KM NWLY BULK
SHEAR...SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. SHOULD
INITIATION APPEAR TO BE IMMINENT...A WW WILL NEED TO BE ISSUED
QUICKLY.

..HURLBUT.. 04/30/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

LAT...LON 33499945 32540019 32940102 33900120 35370000 35929973
35719918 34549896 33929931 33499945

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