SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251721
OHZ000-251845-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1314
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1221 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...OH
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 251721Z - 251845Z
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR CONVECTION THAT
SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF OH.
ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL FLOW IS RATHER WEAK...LATEST STREAMLINE ANALYSIS
SUGGESTS A RATHER PRONOUNCED AXIS OF CONFLUENCE ACROSS THE MIDDLE
PART OF OH. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE STEEPENED SIGNIFICANTLY
ALONG THIS AXIS WITH SFC-3KM VALUES NOW APPROACHING DRY ADIABATIC.
LATEST VIS IMAGERY SUPPORTS THIS WITH CU FIELD EXPANDING/DEEPENING
WITHIN AN AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF
1500-2000 J/KG. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THIS ZONE AS
TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOWER 90S. FORECAST STORM MOTIONS
SUGGEST CONVECTION WILL PROPAGATE SLOWLY SWD ALONG INITIATING ZONE.
..DARROW.. 06/25/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...
LAT...LON 39238449 41498290 41338058 38688231 39238449
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