SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151925
MOZ000-ARZ000-152100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1569
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0225 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MO INTO FAR NRN AR
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 151925Z - 152100Z
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
TSTMS ARE GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING AS OF 1915Z INVOF OF TBN ALONG
SEWD-MOVING COLD FRONT. HERE...LOW-LEVEL MESOSCALE ASCENT IS
APPARENTLY BEING AUGMENTED BY DEEPER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCV
MOVING THROUGH CNTRL MO. RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS INDICATE THAT REGION
IS ON ERN FRINGE OF STEEPER MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATE PLUME...AND WHEN
COUPLED WITH A HOT AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS
HAS BECOME MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE OF 2000-3000
J/KG.
AREA PROFILER AND VWP DATA SHOW THAT LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE
RATHER WEAK. BUT...SOME HIGHER MOMENTUM WLY FLOW /35-40 KT/ EXISTS
IN THE 4-6 KM AGL LAYER. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...THIS
MODEST MIDLEVEL FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS OR
LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
..MEAD.. 07/15/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...
LAT...LON 36669353 37279284 38129139 38149047 37718979 37218954
36688974 36419057 36259194 36259294 36409355 36669353
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment