SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151935
OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-152100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1570
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0235 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...S CENTRAL-SERN CO...NERN NM...PORTIONS OF EXTREME
WRN OK/TX PANHANDLES
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 151935Z - 152100Z
THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON OVER S CENTRAL-SERN CO INTO N CENTRAL-NERN
NM AND EXTREME WRN PORTIONS OF OK/TX PANHANDLES. THE AREA IS BEING
MONITORED FOR A WW.
SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FROM FAR NRN OK WWD TOWARD THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND THEN
THE SRN CO/NRN NM BORDER. HOT SLY WINDS...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
90S EXIST ALONG AND S OF THE FRONT...WHILE COOLER 80S ARE PRESENT TO
ITS N. IN ADDITION...ELY UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG AND N OF THE BOUNDARY IS
MAINTAINING MID 50S DEWPOINTS OVER THE ERN PLAINS OF NERN NM/SERN
CO. THE ERN EDGE OF A PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES EMANATING
OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST IS OVERSPREADING THE REGION...AND WILL
CONTRIBUTE TOWARD 1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE AS ADDITIONAL SURFACE
HEATING COMBINES WITH THE MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE.
SFCOA DATA INDICATES THAT THE STRONGEST BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZATION/STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS OCCURRING FROM
THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF S CENTRAL CO/N CENTRAL NM EWD TOWARD DHT
IN THE NWRN TX PANHANDLE. GIVEN THE LACK OF PROMINENT LARGE SCALE
ASCENT/FEATURELESS MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN NEAR THE FRONT RANGE /EVIDENT BY
RECENT SHOWER AND ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT/...AND THEN MOVE E INTO
THE PLAINS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
VWP DATA AND RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MODEST E-SELY UPSLOPE
WINDS VEER TO WNWLY IN THE MID LEVELS. THOUGH SPEEDS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT /NO MORE THAN 30
KT/...STRONG TURNING WITH HEIGHT WILL YIELD SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR /30-40 KT/ FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL AND POSSIBLE
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. THE STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT COMBINED
WITH MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL FAVOR LARGE HAIL WITH THE
STRONGER UPDRAFT CORES. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS
STORMS MOVE E OFF THE HIGHER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
..GARNER.. 07/15/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...
LAT...LON 38790544 39000466 38800388 37870285 36860228 35870239
35080301 34690399 34780515 35370565 36090586 37890574
38790544
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