Wednesday, September 16, 2009

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 161555
SWODY1
SPC AC 161552

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1052 AM CDT WED SEP 16 2009

VALID 161630Z - 171200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN LARGE SCALE BLOCKING PATTERN ACROSS THE
CONUS. DUAL CUT-OFF LOWS TRAPPED UNDER THE BLOCKING HIGH OVER NRN
HIGH PLAINS ARE FORECAST TO DRIFT SWD...ONE INTO CENTRAL AZ AND THE
OTHER OVER SWRN AR BACK INTO ERN TX.

CONDITIONS IN WARM SECTOR...CENTRAL GULF STATES HAVE CHANGED LITTLE
IN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...WITH A VERY MOIST/TROPICAL AIR MASS IN
PLACE AND JUST ENOUGH SHEAR BEING GENERATED BY THE CUT-OFF LOW TO
MAINTAIN A NON-ZERO THREAT OF ROTATING PRIMARILY DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS. THUS WILL CONTINUE WITH BOTH A LOW PROBABILITY OF
ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADOS AND WET MICROBURSTS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING.

..HALES/GARNER.. 09/16/2009

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