SWODY1
SPC AC 161253
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0753 AM CDT WED SEP 16 2009
VALID 161300Z - 171200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE LWR 48 ONCE AGAIN LARGELY WILL BE
GOVERNED BY TWO UPR LOWS...ONE NOW OVER SRN UT AND THE OTHER SRN AR.
THESE FEATURES WILL REMAIN WELL REMOVED FROM THE MAIN BELT OF THE
WLYS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE UT LOW SHOULD MOVE S INTO E CNTRL AZ
BY EARLY THU IN RESPONSE TO ASSOCIATED JET STREAK NOW MOVING SSE
OVER SRN NV. THE AR SYSTEM HAS WOBBLED A BIT WWD SINCE YESTERDAY...
BUT SHOULD REMAIN MORE OR LESS STNRY OVER THE ARKLATEX THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HRS.
...CNTRL GULF CSTL REGION...
WEAK SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH AR UPR SYSTEM SHOULD REDEVELOP A BIT W
OR WSW TOWARD SHV TODAY AS THE UPR LOW TEMPORARILY ELONGATES W TO E
ACROSS REGION. ATTENDANT DIFFUSE FRONT EXTENDING E/SE FROM THE LOW
SHOULD REMAIN QSTNRY OVER THE LWR MS VLY/CNTRL GULF CST.
SIMILAR TO RECENT DAYS...THE OVERALL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NEARLY
BAROTROPIC...WITH LIMITED DEEP SHEAR. LOW TO MID LAPSE RATES WILL
REMAIN WEAK...BUT RICH MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT WITH PW AROUND 2
INCHES. WITH SFC HEATING...TSTMS SHOULD INTENSIFY/DEVELOP INVOF
FRONT AND ALONG LOW LVL CONFLUENCE LINES IN WARM SECTOR. THESE
STORMS SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY N OR NNEWD. IN ADDITION...ELEVATED
REGENERATIVE STORMS LIKELY WILL PERSIST IN NE QUADRANT OF
SYSTEM...WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY FALL. GIVEN RICH MOISTURE...
SLIGHTLY ENHANCED LOW LVL VEERING OF INVOF FRONT MAY YIELD A LOW BUT
NON-ZERO THREAT FOR A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO AS STORMS INTERACT WITH
BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...ISOLD STG GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY SOME STORMS.
...FOUR CORNERS TO FAR W TX...
LOW TO MID LVL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
SEWD ACROSS NM AS UT UPR SYSTEM DEVELOPS SSE AND STG SFC HEATING
OCCURS ALONG WRN EDGE OF MOISTURE AXIS OVER NM/SW CO. TSTMS SHOULD
FORM MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG/E OF UPR LOW
TRACK. VERTICAL SHEAR OF AROUND 35 KTS AND MODEST BUOYANCY MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO A FEW STG AFTN/EARLY EVE STORMS WITH ISOLD SVR HAIL
AND LOCALLY DMGG WINDS GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF MID LVL LAPSE RATES AND
INVERTED-V BOUNDARY LAYER THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES.
..CORFIDI/HURLBUT.. 09/16/2009
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