SWODY1
SPC AC 151613
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1113 AM CDT TUE SEP 15 2009
VALID 151630Z - 161200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...ERN GREAT BASIN TO SRN HIGH PLAINS...
AS EXPECTED UPPER LOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL UT AND WITH
BLOCKING PATTERN IN PLACE WILL DRIFT SEWD ACROSS UT. GIVEN COLD
NATURE OF LOW AND A RELATIVELY MOIST AIR MASS WITHIN ITS
CIRCULATION...PRIMARILY DIURNAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS WILL BE
COMMON. WITH GENERALLY WEAK SHEAR AND MLCAPES NOT MUCH ABOVE 500
J/KG BY MID AFTERNOON...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED TO ISOLATED
HAIL AND LOCALIZED DOWNBURST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGEST
UPDRAFTS. THIS REGIME WILL EXTEND EWD ACROSS SRN CO/NRN NM INTO
ADJACENT SRN HIGH PLAINS.
...LOWER MS VALLEY...
REF MCD 2017
ANOTHER DAY OF THE WEAK UPPER LOW SURFACE AND ALOFT DRIFTING SLOWLY
NEWD AND LOCATED THIS MORNING VICINITY SWRN AR/NRN LA BORDER. AIR
MASS CONTINUES VERY MOIST/TROPICAL IN NATURE ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY TO E OF THIS CIRCULATION...HOWEVER THE SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN
MARGINAL TO SUPPORT ANY ORGANIZATION TO THE EXPECTED WIDESPREAD
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION/THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL BE SOME
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR VICINITY SUBTLE BOUNDARY/WEAK WARM FRONT
THAT EXTENDS NW/SE ACROSS CENTRAL MS. THIS WOULD BE A MOST FAVORED
REGION FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT.
HOWEVER THERE WILL ALSO BE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF ROTATION AND/OR WET
MICRO BURST COASTAL REGIONS OF MS TO FL PANHANDLE GIVEN THE 15-20KT
OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND INTERACTION WITH THE GULF SEA BREEZE.
..HALES/GARNER.. 09/15/2009
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