SWODY2
SPC AC 151709
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1209 PM CDT TUE SEP 15 2009
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
PRIMARY FEATURES OF INTEREST THIS PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
UPPER LOW CIRCULATIONS CURRENTLY OVER UT AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
THESE FEATURES WILL REMAIN CUTOFF FROM BELT OF STRONGER WLYS AND AS
A RESULT WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY.
...SRN ROCKIES AREA...
MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT CUTOFF UPPER LOW NOW OVER UT WILL DRIFT SWD
INTO ERN AZ WEDNESDAY. LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN AS DIABATIC HEATING
COMMENCES DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...LIMITED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE AOB 500 J/KG FROM PARTS OF NM THROUGH NERN AZ.
STORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITHIN ZONE OF DEEPER ASCENT EAST AND NORTH
OF UPPER LOW CENTER. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND INVERTED-V BOUNDARY
LAYERS WILL PROMOTE A RISK FOR HAIL AND ISOLATED STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
OVERALL THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BY MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL
SHEAR.
...LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH CNTRL GULF COAST REGION...
ENVIRONMENT IN THIS REGION WILL REMAIN SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS SEVERAL
DAYS WITH A WEAK BOUNDARY EXTENDING SEWD THROUGH THE GULF COASTAL
STATES FROM A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY. BAROTROPIC
NATURE OF THE WEAK UPPER LOW WILL LIMIT VERTICAL SHEAR IN THIS
REGION. HOWEVER...VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS IN VICINITY OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A LOW END THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED BRIEF
TORNADO AS STORMS LIFT NWD AND INTERACT WITH THIS BOUNDARY. ISOLATED
STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CORES.
..DIAL.. 09/15/2009
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