SWODY2
SPC AC 150559
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT TUE SEP 15 2009
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
WHILE A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY INLAND ACROSS
NWRN NOAM AND A SECOND TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS...THE
TWO MAIN FEATURES WITH RESPECT TO THE CONVECTIVE FORECAST WILL
REMAIN THE WEAK UPPER LOWS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MEAN LONG-WAVE RIDGE
OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS. THE FIRST OF THESE LOWS IS PROGGED TO DRIFT
SWD INTO THE DESERT SW...WHILE THE SECOND REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY
ACROSS THE S CENTRAL CONUS.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE
COUNTRY...THOUGH A WEAK LOW AND E-W FRONT OVER THE S CENTRAL U.S. IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE UPPER LOW.
...CENTRAL AND SRN NM INTO FAR W TX...
STORMS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE ROCKIES AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW...THOUGH OVERALL THE CAPE/SHEAR
COMBINATION SHOULD PROVE INSUFFICIENT FOR APPRECIABLE SEVERE THREAT.
ONE REGION OF SLIGHTLY-ENHANCED SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY EVOLVE ACROSS
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SRN NM AND FAR W TX...WHERE LOW-LEVEL ELYS MAY
INCREASE INTO THE EVENING. WITH THIS POSSIBLY RESULTING IN AN
ENHANCEMENT OF LOW-LEVEL UVV DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW...AND WITH 20 TO 25
KT MID-LEVEL WLYS ACROSS THIS REGION...A FEW STRONGER CELLS MAY
EVOLVE AS STORMS INCREASE ACROSS THIS REGION -- POSSIBLY YIELDING A
LOW-END THREAT FOR HAIL/WIND.
...CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN FORECAST ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION...AS A
SURFACE LOW REMAINS INVOF THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND THE ASSOCIATED W-E
BAROCLINIC ZONE LINGERS INVOF THE GULF COAST. WITH MODEST SWLYS
ALOFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW ATOP LOW-LEVEL SLYS/SELYS...SHEAR --
BOTH LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER -- SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE SUFFICIENT FOR
LOCAL STORM ORGANIZATION. WITH ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY FORECAST
ONCE AGAIN HOWEVER...STORMS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO INTENSIFY...AND
THUS EXPECT ONLY A LOW-END SEVERE POTENTIAL AT BEST.
..GOSS.. 09/15/2009
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