SWODY3
SPC AC 150726
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0226 AM CDT TUE SEP 15 2009
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE-SCALE UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE U.S. IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
RELATIVELY UNCHANGED...WITH THE NWRN U.S. TROUGH PROGGED TO WEAKEN
AS IT GETS SHUNTED ENEWD ACROSS THE NWRN U.S. TOWARD WRN CANADA BY
THE PERSISTENT LARGE-SCALE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS.
MEANWHILE...A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SHOULD EXIT THE NORTHEAST ONLY TO BE
REPLACED BY A SECOND FEATURE...MAINTAINING THE MEAN/LARGER-SCALE
TROUGHING OVER THIS REGION. ELSEWHERE...TWO WEAK UPPER LOWS WILL
PERSIST WITHIN THE MEAN LONGWAVE RIDGE PREVAILING OVER MOST OF THE
CONUS.
THE FIRST OF THESE TWO LOWS SHOULD SHIFT SLOWLY EWD OUT OF AZ AND
ACROSS SRN NM...RESULTING IN ANOTHER DAY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER
THE CENTRAL AND SRN ROCKIES. MEANWHILE...THE SECOND LOW -- PROGGED
TO LINGER/SHIFT SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION -- WILL
ALSO SUPPORT ANOTHER DAY OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE SERN QUARTER OF
THE COUNTRY. IN BOTH AREAS...LIMITED SHEAR/INSTABILITY COMBINATION
PRECLUDES APPRECIABLE SEVERE POTENTIAL...AND THUS ANY NEED FOR EVEN
LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES ATTM.
ELSEWHERE...CONVECTION SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS PARTS OF ID/WRN MT AHEAD OF THE WEAKENING TROUGH MOVING ENEWD
ACROSS THIS REGION TOWARD THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE. HERE TOO...THE LACK
OF APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY SUGGESTS LITTLE IF ANY POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER.
..GOSS.. 09/15/2009
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