SWODY2
SPC AC 231714
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1214 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2009
VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...MIDDLE MO RIVER VALLEY...
AS A CLOSED/CUT-OFF UPPER LOW SHIFTS SLOWLY NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND AN ASSOCIATED UPPER JET EXIT REGION OVERSPREADS
THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY/UPPER MIDWEST...THE PRIMARY SURFACE FOCUS FOR
POSSIBLE TSTM DEVELOPMENT /MAINLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING/ WILL LIKELY BE ALONG/NORTHEAST OF A WEAKENING/OCCLUDING
SURFACE FRONT. WITH MAINTENANCE OF COOL THERMAL PROFILES ALOFT
ATTENDANT TO THE CLOSED UPPER LOW /-20C AT 500 MB/...AN AXIS OF 50S
F SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN CONJUNCTION WITH DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD
RESULT IN MODEST DESTABILIZATION THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF 500-800 J/KG OF SBCAPE. WHILE AN APPRECIABLE SEVERE
RISK IS NOT ANTICIPATED...WILL MAINTAIN LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES FOR
HAIL ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR MODEST BUOYANCY AND
STRONG/BUT LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES.
...MID-SOUTH AND LOWER MS/TN RIVER VALLEYS...
WITH THE GLANCING INFLUENCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/JET STREAK
CROSSING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/OZARKS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
WITHIN A VERY MOIST AND WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS ALONG/EAST OF A
RESIDUAL SURFACE FRONT. CLOUD/PRECIPITATION HINDERED SURFACE HEATING
AND WEAK LAPSE RATES/WEAK SHEAR ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR WILL LIKELY
PRECLUDE AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT.
..GUYER.. 09/23/2009
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