SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231718
MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-231815-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2028
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1218 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF NY AND INTO VT/NH...
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 231718Z - 231815Z
A SLOW INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/INTENSITY MAY RESULT IN SOME
THREAT FOR LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS.
LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS REVEALS THE DAYTIME HEATING OF THE MOIST
PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA IS
RESULTING IN MODEST DESTABILIZATION...WITH AROUND 500 J/KG
MIXED-LAYER CAPE NOW INDICATED. CONVECTION NOW CROSSING LK ONTARIO
AND THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY HAS SHOWN SOME INTENSIFICATION OVER THE
PAST HOUR...AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
POTENTIAL FOR STORM INTENSIFICATION/ORGANIZATION WILL BE AIDED BY A
SLOW INCREASE IN THE WIND FIELD ALOFT...AS STRONGER FLOW CONTINUES
TO SPREAD ESEWD INTO THIS AREA AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH CROSSING
ERN CANADA. WHILE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT
LIMITED BY MODEST THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...STRONGER STORMS/LINE
SEGMENTS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS MAY PRODUCE
LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS. NONETHELESS...THREAT SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED...LIKELY NOT REQUIRING WW ISSUANCE.
..GOSS.. 09/23/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...GYX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...
LAT...LON 45057071 44467041 42537359 42057702 42317908 43257881
44967486 45057071
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment