SWODY1
SPC AC 120532
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1232 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2009
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...GULF COAST STATES...
WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES TODAY AS A SFC HIGH OVER THE ERN U.S. MOVES AWAY FROM THE
REGION. IN RESPONSE...FLOW AT LOW-LEVELS IN THE GULF COAST STATES
WILL BECOME SLY INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AND SHARPENING A GRADIENT
IN MOISTURE FROM SCNTRL MS EWD TO SRN SC. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY
BE ONGOING ALONG THIS GRADIENT THIS MORNING WITH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
GRADUALLY INCREASING LATE THIS MORNING INTO AFTERNOON DUE TO SFC
HEATING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES THIS
AFTERNOON SHOW INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WITH NWD EXTENT
SUGGESTING A NARROW ZONE WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY EXIST ALONG THE
NRN EDGE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM SCNTRL MS EWD INTO SCNTRL GA.
ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE THAT
STEEP...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH A DEEP LAYER MAY BE ENOUGH FOR
ISOLATED WET DOWNBURSTS WITH THE STRONGER MULTICELL CLUSTERS. THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE SHOULD BE IN SE AL AND SCNTRL GA WHERE
MODEL FORECASTS SHOW A WEAK LOW-LEVEL JET EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...WEAKLY FORCED ASCENT AND RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY
SHOULD KEEP ANY SEVERE THREAT MARGINAL.
..BROYLES/JEWELL.. 10/12/2009
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