SWODY2
SPC AC 120556
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2009
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
LOW AMPLITUDE WESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN DOMINANT OVER THE
CONUS THROUGH TUESDAY. AS A LOW AMPLITUDE IMPULSE/JET STREAK CROSSES
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THE PRIMARY TSTM POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/GULF COAST STATES AS A MODIFIED GULF
AIRMASS RETURNS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. OTHER ISOLATED TSTMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN CA AND PERHAPS COASTAL ORE AS A
STRONG UPPER JET/OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES ASHORE.
...NORTH/CENTRAL TX TO ARKLATEX/LOWER MS VALLEY...
AS A MID LEVEL IMPULSE/SPEED MAXIMA CROSSES THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...WEAK CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS ON TUESDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...THE GRADUAL NORTHWARD RETURN OF
A MODIFIED GULF AIRMASS IS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF TX AND THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODEST HEIGHT FALLS AND
MODERATE WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW /30-35 KT/ MAY COINCIDE WITH THE
NORTHWARD RETURNING WARM/MOIST AIRMASS...BUT AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION AND WEAK MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES SHOULD HINDER APPRECIABLE SURFACE BASED DESTABILIZATION.
WHILE A FEW SUSTAINED STRONGER STORMS ARE CONCEIVABLE /MAINLY NORTH
OR CENTRAL TX DURING THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING/...SEEMINGLY
LIMITED OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL AND APPRECIABLE FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO DESTABILIZATION PRECLUDES ANY SEVERE
PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.
LATER IN THE PERIOD...HEIGHT FALLS WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR TUESDAY
NIGHT EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH/LOWER MS VALLEY AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURNS INTO THE REGION. WHILE 00Z GFS GUIDANCE REFLECTS
NOCTURNALLY INCREASING/MODERATE LOW LEVEL FLOW /30-40 KT AT 850 MB/
ATTENDANT TO WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE PERIOD ACROSS
THE MID-SOUTH/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...WEAKER 00Z NAM AND 12Z/11TH
ECMWF SOLUTIONS AND AFOREMENTIONED WEAK LAPSE RATES/LIMITED
DESTABILIZATION PRECLUDES ANY DAMAGING WIND/BRIEF TORNADO RELATED
PROBABILITIES.
..GUYER.. 10/12/2009
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