DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 120732
SWODY3
SPC AC 120729

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2009

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE/LOW AMPLITUDE WESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CONUS
MUCH OF WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY LATE
IN THE PERIOD WITH THE ONSET OF LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE
LOWER MO VALLEY/ARKLATEX TO MIDDLE/LOWER MS VALLEY.

...SOUTHERN PLAINS/ARKLATEX TO MID-SOUTH/LOWER MS VALLEY...
RELATIVELY STRONG WESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW...WITH ONSET OF LATTER
PERIOD HEIGHT FALLS...WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR LEE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND THE NORTHWARD TRANSPORT OF A MODIFIED
GULF AIRMASS /AROUND 70F SURFACE DEWPOINTS/ ACROSS PORTIONS OF
TX/PERHAPS SOUTHEAST OK TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. IN THE WAKE OF EARLY
DAY SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY...IT APPEARS THAT MUCH
OF THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS NORTH TX/FAR SOUTHERN OK TO THE ARKLATEX
COULD REMAIN CAPPED DIURNALLY...OWING TO LIMITED FORCING ACROSS THE
WARM SECTOR AND MID LEVEL WARMING...IN SPITE OF A FAVORABLE
JUXTAPOSITION OF STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL FLOW AND A
MOIST/POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. WHILE A CONDITIONAL
SUPERCELL/ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST DURING THE
AFTERNOON...THE PRIMARY SEVERE RISK FOR THE PERIOD MAY NOT OCCUR
UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EASTWARD ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND
MID-SOUTH/LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS WOULD BE COINCIDENT WITH MORE
APPRECIABLE HEIGHT FALLS/LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND
STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER/LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS...INCLUDING THE
POSSIBILITY OF QUASI-DISCRETE/LINE-EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND BOWS WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR A TORNADO OR TWO. FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR WARM SECTOR CAPPING AND
QUESTIONS REGARDING THE ONSET OF THE PRIMARY SEVERE
THREAT...PRECLUDES A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK AT THIS TIME.

..GUYER.. 10/12/2009

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