SWOD48
SPC AC 120900
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2009
VALID 151200Z - 201200Z
...DISCUSSION...
LATEST ECMWF/GEFS GUIDANCE REMAIN IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE EXPECTED APPRECIABLE AMPLIFICATION OF THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN...HIGHLIGHTED BY EASTERN STATES UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH DAYS 4/5 THURSDAY/FRIDAY. WHILE VARIABILITY EXISTS REGARDING
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE FEATURES AND/OR THE TIMING/DEGREE OF INITIAL
AMPLIFICATION...IT DOES SEEM PROBABLE THAT A SEVERE TSTM THREAT WILL
DEVELOP EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COAST STATES TO THE
SOUTHEAST COAST/NORTH FL ON DAY 4/THURSDAY. DESPITE THE RETURN OF A
MODIFIED GULF AIRMASS AND A DEEPENING CYCLONE...CONTINUED
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE PARENT SYSTEM AND
IMPLICATIONS ON CONVECTIVE MODE/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES PRECLUDE 30%
DAY-1 EQUIVALENT PROBABILITIES FOR DAY 4/THURSDAY AT THIS TIME.
WHILE A SEVERE RISK COULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY DAY 5/FRIDAY ACROSS
FL...THE SEVERE THREAT OTHERWISE APPEARS LOW THEREAFTER INTO THE
WEEKEND AS A COOLER/MORE STABLE AIRMASS PREVAILS EAST OF THE
ROCKIES.
..GUYER.. 10/12/2009
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