SWODY1
SPC AC 221248
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0748 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2009
VALID 221300Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SE TX INTO THE LWR MS
VLY...
...SYNOPSIS...
CNTRL PLNS UPR LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY ENE TODAY...BEFORE ACCELERATING
NE INTO CNTRL IA EARLY FRI AS IT BEGINS TO BE ABSORBED WITHIN NRN
STREAM DISTURBANCE AMPLIFYING SE FROM THE CANADIAN RCKYS/HI PLNS.
WELL SE OF THE KS LOW...WATER VAPOR AND VWP DATA SHOW BAND OF
ASCENT/ENHANCED MID LVL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF FORMER T.C.
RICK NOW OVER THE NWRN GULF/SE TX. THIS FEATURE SHOULD SHEAR
RAPIDLY NE ACROSS THE LWR MS VLY TODAY...AHEAD OF JET STREAK NOW
ENTERING NM.
AT THE SFC...WEAK LOW AND ASSOCIATED DIFFUSE WARM FRONT ALONG THE
MIDDLE TX GULF CST SHOULD MOVE NE TO THE LWR SABINE VLY BY
MIDDAY...BEFORE CONTINUING NE TOWARD THE MEM AREA THIS EVE. COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH KS UPR SYSTEM SHOULD OVERTAKE THE SFC LOW LATE
TODAY/EARLY TONIGHT...AND MAY SUPPORT MODEST DEEPENING OF THE LOW AS
IT REACHES SRN/CNTRL IL EARLY FRI.
...SE TX INTO LWR MS VLY...
LOW LVL AIR MASS SHOULD CONTINUE TO RECOVER OVER MOST OF LA AND THE
REMAINDER OF THE CNTRL GULF CST/LWR MS VLY LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY
FRI AS PRE-FRONTAL S TO SSWLY FLOW PERSISTS AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED
COLD FRONT. THE GREATEST RECOVERY IS EXPECTED OVER SRN/ERN LA INTO
WRN/SRN MS AS WEAK NNW/SSE WARM FRONT MARKING WRN EDGE OF RESIDUAL
CP AIR ADVANCES SLOWLY EWD. DEWPOINTS IN THIS REGION SHOULD REACH
THE UPR 60S TO LOW 70S...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ALONG THE CST.
WHILE MID LVL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN WEAK...THE ADDED LOW LVL
MOISTURE WILL FOSTER MODEST DESTABILIZATION. SBCAPE OF 500-1000
J/KG IS EXPECTED OVER SRN LA BY AFTN.
COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE/INSTABILITY...CONFLUENT LOW LVL
FLOW INVOF WARM FRONT...AND BAND OF ENHANCED /40 KT/ 700 MB FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF T.C. RICK WILL YIELD A SUFFICIENTLY
SHEARED/MOIST ENVIRONMENT FOR BANDS/SMALL CLUSTERS OF SUSTAINED
STORMS POSING A THREAT FOR ISOLD TORNADOES/LOCALLY DMGG WIND.
NNE MOTION OF LEAD SFC WAVE TOWARD WRN TN AND...EVENTUALLY...SRN
IL...WILL ALLOW A NARROW AXIS OF WARM/MOIST TO ACCELERATE NNE INTO
ERN AR AND THE LWR TN/LWR OH VLYS TONIGHT/EARLY FRI. SFC-BASED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION LIKELY WILL REMAIN VERY LIMITED DUE
TO CONTINUING PRESENCE OF RELATIVELY MID LVL WARM AIR. BUT DEEP
WIND FIELD/SHEAR...AND FORCING FOR ASCENT...WILL INCREASE BETWEEN 06
AND 12Z FRI AS JET STREAK NOW OVER NM APPROACHES FROM THE WSW. THIS
SETUP MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLD DMGG WIND/BRIEF TORNADO THREAT FROM
EMBEDDED TSTMS...WHILE STRONGER/ MORE NUMEROUS STORMS PERSIST ALONG
TRAILING COLD FRONT CLOSER TO THE CST.
..CORFIDI/JEWELL.. 10/22/2009
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